"Let them eat cake"

Food has been on my mind a lot lately. Food prices in particular, and food scarcity.

The World Bank, the UN and countless other organizations are attempting to sound the alarm about rising food prices around the globe.

Here in Kenya, the food prices have already risen significantly over the past three months. That inflation is precipitated and exacerbated by domestic politics, climate and many other factors.

An op-ed in Monday's Daily Nation sums it up nicely. Rasna Warah writes:

A researcher at the Institute of Security Studies in South Africa has noted that the impact of the food crisis will be felt most acutely in African countries, where there is already a lot of anger in urban areas around issues such as unemployment and lack of basic services, especially among the poor.

Kenyans are not known to protest over food prices - we tend to take to the streets only to voice our support or opposition to a political party or leader, not because we cannot afford to feed ourselves or our families.

But given our fragile political situation, rising inflation (now at more than 20 per cent), high unemployment, an impending drought and a declining economy, it won't be long before people begin to protest in other ways - through crime, looting and violence.

High food prices can thus lead to other forms of social instability and anarchy. The scenario is too horrific to even imagine.

Comments

[Alexandra Palace]

I came across your blog on Jeff Gaulin's media job board, and I've been enjoying learning about Kenya through your eyes. I'm especially interested in this "global food shortage," which was splashed across the front page of Canada's largest newspaper this weekend but has apparently been in the offing for months.

I recently finished a reporting contract in the Dominican Republic, and had the opportunity to travel to Haiti, where all of the factors Warah listed in the editorial were in place.

Haiti (unemployment roughly 70%, according to conservative estimates) had already been in a political and economic deadlock with the D.R. over an outbreak of bird flu that led to both countries implementing sweeping bans on imported produce (poultry at first, but soon, out of spite, grain and some types of fruit and veg). The government was cautiously optimistic about their hold on power and working very hard to accomplish as much as possible before the other shoe dropped. They seemed to anticipate then that if the country was going to reach another crisis point, it would be over food, but they had gambled that the D.R. would come out the economic loser in the bird flu debacle. (It was a good gamble, to be fair; the D.R. had already taken a huge hit to their agricultural sector in November with Tropical Storm Noel.)

Then the price of imported rice doubled, and the situation exploded - people rioting in the streets, UN patrol forces cracking down. And the opportunistic political opposition has seized their moment to further destabilize the government. It will likely fall within a matter of weeks - again. It's an absolutely incomprehensible tragedy.

I'll be following your analysis of the Kenyan situation with interest.